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What is the probability that an earthquake will occur in the Los Angeles Area? In the San Francisco Bay area?  

Los Angeles area:

Within the next 30 years the probability is:

  • 60% that an earthquake measuring magnitude 6.7

  • 46% that an earthquake measuring magnitude 7

  • 31% that an earthquake measuring magnitude 7.5

will occur in the Los Angeles region.

San Francisco Bay area:

Within the next 30 years the probability is:

  • 72% that an earthquake measuring magnitude 6.7

  • 51% that an earthquake measuring magnitude 7

  • 20% that an earthquake measuring magnitude 7.5

will occur in the San Francisco region.


Learn More: Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast 3